Solar Cycle 25 After Solar Maximum: Where the Sun Is in Late 2026, From NOAA's Sunspot Data
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How we wrote this: A summary of NASA's October 15, 2024 announcement with NOAA, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) "Solar Cycle Progression" page, and SWPC's published table of observed monthly solar cycle indices (all linked below), checked October 29, 2026. The sunspot numbers quoted are the sunspot number (
ssn) and smoothed (smoothed_ssn) values in that table. We describe the data; we don't make our own forecast.
The Sun's activity rises and falls on a cycle of roughly 11 years. At the busy end, solar maximum, there are more sunspots, flares and eruptions, and more auroras on Earth. The current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, has already passed through that peak period. Here's what the official sources say, and what the numbers show now.
October 2024: "the Sun has reached its solar maximum period"
On October 15, 2024, NASA, NOAA and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel announced that the Sun had reached its solar maximum period, which could continue for about a year. From NASA's write-up:
- Roughly every 11 years, at the height of the cycle, the Sun's magnetic poles flip, and the Sun goes from calm to active and stormy.
- NASA and NOAA track sunspots, cooler regions caused by concentrated magnetic field lines, to follow the cycle's progress.
- The exact peak month can't be named at the time. It's only identifiable after scientists have tracked a consistent decline in activity afterward, which can take "months or years."
- Cycle 25's sunspot activity had slightly exceeded expectations.
- In May 2024, a barrage of flares and coronal mass ejections produced the strongest geomagnetic storm at Earth in two decades, and possibly among the strongest aurora displays in the past 500 years.
What NOAA's data show since
SWPC publishes the monthly sunspot numbers behind its solar cycle charts, along with a smoothed value that irons out month-to-month swings. In the table, the smoothed series currently stops six months before the latest monthly value.
| Month | Smoothed sunspot number | Monthly value |
|---|---|---|
| December 2019 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| October 2024 | 160.9 (highest so far) | 165.8 |
| October 2025 | 108.5 | 114.8 |
| March 2026 (latest smoothed) | 94.4 | 86.6 |
| September 2026 | not yet available | 60.3 |
December 2019 is the lowest smoothed value around the start of Cycle 25. The highest smoothed value so far is 160.9, for October 2024. The single busiest month was August 2024, with a monthly value of 216.0. Smoothed values have generally fallen since, and recent monthly values are well below their 2024 levels.
For scale, SWPC's page says the 2019 prediction panel expected Cycle 25 to peak at a smoothed 115 in July 2025 (with a range of 105 to 125, between November 2024 and March 2026). The observed smoothed high so far, 160.9, is above that whole range. SWPC now shows an updated prediction that is refit to the observations every month, with shaded ranges for uncertainty.
Calm isn't guaranteed in the declining phase
NASA's 2024 announcement noted that scientists often see fairly significant storms during the declining phase of a solar cycle, and NOAA anticipated more solar and geomagnetic storms during the maximum period. So a falling sunspot count doesn't mean the aurora season is over. For checking tonight's chances, see the northern lights and the Kp index.
Why the cycle matters beyond auroras
SWPC lists who uses its solar cycle predictions and why:
- Satellites in low-Earth orbit: atmospheric drag rises and falls with the cycle, so a stronger maximum shortens satellite lifetimes and a weaker one extends them.
- Space weather planning: the cycle gives a rough idea of how often storms of all kinds will happen, including radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms and radiation storms.
- SWPC also points to impacts on GPS, electric power transmission and HF radio.
When does Solar Cycle 26 begin?
SWPC's page says Solar Cycle 26 is expected to begin sometime between January 2029 and December 2032, and that it doesn't yet produce a prediction for Cycle 26.
Looking at the charts yourself
SWPC's Solar Cycle Progression page has interactive charts of the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux, which SWPC charts alongside it. Hover to read values and drag to zoom. A menu also overlays the 2019 panel prediction for comparison.